30-year conventional rates

Bill’s rate journal

How the week looked from this desk

1. September 1030-year conventional 6.99%

   “Mortgage rates will be higher today. Oil broke above $100 after more fighting in the Middle East, and that is putting upward pressure on mortgage rates. Higher oil can lift the price of gas and other goods; wholesale prices already moved higher, and if tomorrow’s consumer inflation report stays hot, the Fed is more likely to raise rates on September 16 — mortgage rates usually follow. If that inflation report cools, a hike is harder to justify and mortgage rates can catch a break. Existing-home sales also slowed last month, the slowest pace in over a year.”

2. September 930-year conventional 6.99%

   “Mortgage rates may be the same or a touch higher today. Oil is near $96 after more fighting in the Middle East, and that is putting some upward pressure on mortgage rates this morning. Higher oil can lift the price of everyday goods; if inflation stays hot, the Fed is more likely to raise rates on September 16, and mortgage rates usually follow. If Friday’s inflation report cools, a hike is harder to justify and mortgage rates catch a break. A private jobs report still looks soft compared with last week’s strong government jobs number. A strong jobs report can put more pressure on mortgage rates; a weaker one can take some of that pressure off.”

3. September 830-year conventional 6.99%

   “Mortgage rates may be the same or a touch lower today. Oil jumped above $93 after weekend fighting in the Middle East, but mortgage bonds still firmed a little and the 10-year Treasury eased. This week’s inflation report is what the Fed said will decide a September 16 hike. We are watching Friday’s inflation numbers.”

4. September 430-year conventional 6.99%

   “Mortgage rates may be the same or a touch higher today. The government’s August jobs report was much stronger than expected — 162,000 jobs versus forecasts around 56,000 — but mortgage rates only moved a little. That report used to swing the market hard; it still matters, just not as much as it used to. Next week’s inflation report is the bigger tell, and markets are closed Monday for Labor Day.”

5. September 330-year conventional 6.99%

   “Mortgage rates may be the same or a touch lower today. Bonds are higher after a Fed official said he is willing to leave rates alone on September 16 if inflation keeps cooling, though he would consider a hike if next week’s inflation report comes in hot. Oil is still climbing, near $92, and private job reports remain soft ahead of tomorrow’s official jobs number. We are watching that report.”

6. September 230-year conventional 6.99%

   “Mortgage rates may be the same or a touch lower today. Oil slipped a little but is still just under $90, and the 10-year Treasury — the market mortgage rates follow — eased off yesterday’s high. A private jobs report showed only 38,000 new jobs in August, weaker than expected, while a New York Fed official said the Fed can leave rates where they are on September 16 unless next week’s inflation report changes the picture. We are watching that report.”

7. September 130-year conventional 6.99%

   “Mortgage rates may be the same or a touch higher today. Oil is up again after two tankers were hit in a major shipping lane, and the 10-year Treasury — the market mortgage rates follow — is holding above 4.75%. A Fed official said they may raise rates on September 16 if next week’s inflation report does not cool off, so we are watching this week’s jobs numbers and that report.”

8. August 3130-year conventional 7.06%

   “Mortgage rates should push a little higher today. Oil is over $86 a barrel after the weekend U.S.–Iran strikes, and that is pressuring mortgage bonds. The 10-year Treasury is breaking above 4.75%, a level we have not seen since early last year. If this week’s jobs data comes in hot, the Fed is more likely to hike on September 16 — and if they do, expect mortgage rates to follow.”

9. August 2830-year conventional 6.89%

   “Jackson Hole came out tougher on inflation than expected. Talk of possible rate hikes is lifting mortgage rates today, so we are playing defense and hoping things bounce back early next week.”